Agricultural Situation in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan: Part I

Dear Policy Makers,

With due respect and honor, I would like to welcome you to our today's discussion. Last week, I talked about agricultural research investment scenario of Bangladesh. You were feeling uncomfortable, because I was appealing to you to invest more on agricultural research in Bangladesh. Today, I would like to present you the agricultural situation in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. I believe, you will surely feel nervous like me when my talk is over. I am sure you must have to ask yourself , "Where are we going? Where is our destiny? Will we be continuously falling behind others? Is there any future for us really to achieve? What should we have to do for our agriculture?"

Your Honor!

To clarify my point, I would like to request you to join me in a tour to Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Please, Don't worry! In these electronic days you need not to visit physically all these countries and spend your very busy time. Only spending about 15 minutes in this page is enough to complete your trip. Let's start our visit from our holy mother land Bangladesh. Then, we would go to India to see their situation and lastly to Pakistan. Then our "East-West tour" will be completed. Please, be also prepared to commute, every now and then, so that we can have a fresh picture of our crop fields compared to the Indian and Pakistani farmers.

Ladies and Gentlemen!

Now, we are at the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of Bangladesh. We are looking at the Handbook of Agricultural Statistics of Bangladesh, 1995. Our dedicated workers in the Ministry has compiled very informative statistics for you. Please concentrate your eyes in page 33 which shows the growth rate (%) in production of different crops in Bangladesh during the period 1981-94. Annual compound rate of growth in paddy production was 2.51 percent while the corresponding figures for sugarcane, spices, potato, vegetables, and betel leaves were 0.64, 1.36, 2.07, 0.94 and 1.03 percent, respectively. "Not Bad!" -You exclaimed. Please also look at the production growth rate in wheat, jute, cotton, tobacco, pulses, rape & mustard, banana, melon. Each of these crops had a negative growth rate during this period. That is, production has declined over time. The rate of decline in wheat production was 0.39 percent per annum. For jute, pulses, rape & mustard it was 0.61, 0.02, and 1.06 percent, respectively. For cotton, the rate of decline per annum in production was 0.66 percent while it was 3.22 percent for tobacco, 0.02 percent for pulses. Tobacco is unhealthy for the society and you may had a feeling that decreased tobacco production would reduce smoking which, in turn, would lead us to a healthy society. But the real world situation is different. Total tobacco consumption in Bangladesh is increasing over time. The increased demand for tobacco is met up through import which requires our hard earned foreign currency. Please try to think in this pragmatic direction rather than an unrealistic manner. Our banana and melon production have also decreased at the rate of 0.84 and 0.63 percent per annum. This would force us either to consume less banana and melon or to import. Less consumption would lead to nutrition problem while import would require foreign exchange. As I am observing your face, I can see that everybody's face is pale but someone is saying, "At least our rice and potato production are in well shape". I know how wrong you are, but I have to keep silent until we visit India and Pakistan. After visiting India and Pakistan, you will realize that we are undoubtedly good in increasing our rice and potato production but our neighbors are far better than us.

Dear Policy Makers,

So far, we have seen our situation in terms of total production growth. Now, I would like to show you the scenario of crop yield. Let us look at page 57 and 58 of the "Hand Book of Agricultural Statistics 1995" which present yield levels of different crops on a yearly basis. Though the yield levels are given here in a yearly basis. But I have done some computation for you to compare the average yield level of major crops in Bangladesh for the period 1980/81-84/85 period (in subsequent discussions first period for convenience), and 1990/91- 93/94 period (in subsequent discussions second period for convenience) rather then showing the yield level in a particular year. I was eager to include 1994/95 year also but unavailability of data limited me to do that. Comparison of average yield for four or five years would eliminate likely bias of abnormal yield due to natural calamity like drought, flood, etc. Therefore, we would get a clear picture about change in yield during these two periods. Paddy yield has increased from 1360 kg to 1750 kg per hectare during the second period compared to the first period. But wheat yield has decreased from 2040 kg to 1800 kg. Increase in paddy yield is surely a good news but decrease in wheat yield is undoubtedly a bad news. Increased paddy yield could make us happy but decreased wheat yield eliminates the chance of being happy.

Now, please look at the scenario of sugarcane and tobacco yield during these two periods. Per hectare sugarcane yield has declined from 43.22 metric tons to 39.98 metric ton during the second period compared to the first period. This indicates that increase in sugarcane production was due to the increase in sugarcane area. We can not expect area expansion in the coming years due to land scarcity. Therefore, we will face a serious problem in sugarcane in the near future. Please take note of this situation. We have seen earlier that tobacco production has decreased over time but here we can see that per hectare tobacco yield has slightly increased (920 kg to 933 kg). Without adequate sugar our life may not be so sweet in future!

Your Honor!

Pulses are very important in our daily diet. At least one of these Dals--gram, Mung, Masur, Khesari and Mashkalai-would be in the menu of most of the Bangladeshi families every day. We have seen earlier that our pulse production has decreased very sharply. Let's have a look about the yield performance of the pulses during the first and second period. Per hectare yield of gram has decreased from 740 kg to 725 kg. Khesari yield (kg/ha) has decreased from 1020 kg to 750 kg. All other pulses yield have increased during the second period compared to the first period. Per hectare yield of Mung has increased from 540 to 600 kg while for Masur yield has increased from 660 kg to 750 kg, and Mashkalai yield has increased from 700 kg to 775 kg. Increase in yield for some pulses though creates some hope for us but decrease in total pulses production implies that probably comparative profitability of pulses has decreased. Please take note that if pulses production decreases continuously in future then it would not be easy to provide "Dal-Bhat" (rice and pulses) to our people in future.

Dear Policy Makers,

We can not think of passing even a single day without oil. Everyday, we use oil for our various consumption. A huge quantity of oil is also required for `oiling' are bosses like you. But our major source of oil, that is, rape and mustard production has decreased over time which I have already mentioned. Now, let us inquire what happened to yield. All the oilseeds (Mustard, Til, Linseed, Groundnut) yields have decreased in the second period compared to the first period. Per hectare yield of Mustard has decreased from 940 kg to 700 kg, Til yield has decreased to 600 kg from 880 kg, linseed yield has decreased from 1440kg to 675 kg while groundnut yield has decreased from 1320 kg to 1125 kg. Please think for a moment that our oilseeds production and yields of oilseeds are decreasing over time when demand for oil is increasing over time. Then, how can we be able to "oiling" you in future?

Dear Policy Makers!

Bangladesh is known as a `country of golden fiber' because of Jute. But what is the situation of our `golden fibre'? Jute production has decreased over time as mentioned earlier. Please note that there is an increase in jute yield during the second period compared to the first period. Per hectare jute yield has increased from 7.92 bales to 9.30 bales. This is a good news but the bad news is cotton yield has decreased from 2460 kg to 1675 kg. Then how can we be able to meet our increasing demand for yarn? How can you fulfill your promise to provide clothing for everybody?

Your Honor!

I told you earlier that our spices production showed an increase during 1981-94 period. Let us turn our eyes to the spices yield scenario. We can see that chili yield (kg/ha) has increased from 580 to 775. Probably this may be the reason for our hot temper. If you just go out of home then you can see how easily we loose our temper. Truck drivers loose their temper when others are delayed to give them a way, bus and motor drivers loose their temper when they find some one is crossing the road. Their hot tempers takes so many life you know far better then me. Even you would see that the temper of Rickshaw drivers is so hot that they don't care whether someone is crossing the road or not. Politicians loose their temper while they are out of power! Is there any causal relationship between increase in chili yield and hot temper? May be. Chilies are hot too. Yield (kg/ha) of onion has increased from 3880 to 4175. But garlic yield has decreased from 3160 kg to 2775 kg per hectare. Ginger yield has decreased from 6180 kg to 5150 kg per hectare. In short, the picture is not so spicy as we have seen from the increase in total production of spices. If the decline in yield continues then we have to depend more on import for our daily spices. Without increase in spice yield and production will our days be spicy? Please think for a while.

Ladies and Gentlemen!

Vegetables are very essential for us. Doctors recommend to take more vegetables in our daily diet. Even TV advertisements preaches us to eat more vegetables. We have seen some increase in vegetable production while we were discussing the growth rate of production. Now, I would tell you the story of yield of different vegetables. Per hectare potato yield has increased from 10240 kg to 10675 kg. But sweet potato yield has decreased from 10680 to 9600 kg. Per hectare yield of Rabi Brinjal has increased from 6640 kg to 6875 kg while Kharif Brinjal yield decreased from 6140 kg to 5625 kg. It seems that every good news is followed by a bad news. Yield of cauliflower has increased from 7680 kg to 7850 kg. Cabbage yield has increased from 8140 kg to 8600 kg. But tomato yield has decreased from 7460 kg to 7375 kg. Radish yield has increased from 8140 to 8600 kg. Therefore, you may have a chance to hang a radish (Mula) in front of our nose!!

Dear policy Makers,

Scientists say that eating a fresh fruit every day increases the longevity of human being. But what is the situation of our fruit production? We have seen earlier that our banana and melon production declined over time and almost no growth (0.03percent per annum only) in mango production. Now, I would cite the yield level of different fruit crops. Mango yield has decreased from 4000 kg to 3725 kg per hectare. Banana yield has decreased from 16400 kg to 16150 kg. Papaya yield has decreased to 8400 kg to 7350 kg per hectare. Litchi yield has decreased from 3240 kg to 2650 kg. Oh! My lovely litchis you would be dearer and dearer over time! Are we going to miss your utterly delicious flesh in future? Only Policy makers knows! If they take some rapid action then we would be able to have your taste otherwise your utterly tastes can only be told to our next generation. Though bad news is not over but there is some good news for fruits. Per hectare yield of pineapple, Jackfruit and guava has increased during the second period compared to the first period. Pineapple yield has increased from 9860 kg to 11325 kg. Jackfruit yield has increased from 10040 kg to 10175 kg. Guava yield has increased from 3800 kg to 4975kg. As we have seen in earlier, every good news is followed by bad news. Fruits are no exception. Melon yield has decreased from 13120 kg to 8950kg. Therefore, we may not get enough juicy fruits in future. Without adequate fruits how can our lives be fruitful, Sir (Madam)?

Your Honor!

Let me summarize our observation about Bangladesh agriculture as portrayed in the "Hand Book of Agricultural Statistics 1995" (page 33, 57, and 58). The numbers presented in these pages tell us that we had a positive growth in paddy, potato, sugarcane and spices production. Production of pulses, oilseeds, and fruits, crops has decreased over time. Yield of most of the crops has decreased during the period 1990/91-93/94 compared to 1980/81-84/85 period. Without a massive program for agricultural development it would not be possible for Bangladesh in future to increase production of agricultural commodities. All concerned citizens, specially the policy makers should consider this reality during the Fifth Five Year Plan preparation. If we fail to do that then we have to face serious consequences.

Ladies and Gentlemen!

You must be very tired by this time after visiting all the major crops' field for such a long time. Therefore, I would like end our today's tour here. Next week, we would visit India. We would start from the West Bengal and go up to the Punjab and Haryana states of India. Would you please think for a while about the existing scenario of our crop sector which we have seen today and some possible actions which would help us to increase both crop yield and crop production in the coming years. If you can think of then let me know so that I can place it for wider circulation.

With best regards and thanks,

Scientifically yours,

Uttam Deb

N.B. This page is updated every Sunday.